一万年太久,只争朝夕中国股票牛市秘密(Ten thousand years too long, seize the day China bull's Secret)
时间:2020-09-03 08:42:34 来源:达达文档网 本文已影响 人
一万年太久,只争朝夕中国股票牛市的秘密(Ten thousand years too long, seize the day China bull's Secret)
"Ten thousand years too long, seize the day" China bull's Secret
The secret of the bull market
All the myth of wealth on the stock market are based on the "interest", which is often said that the "compound interest". Poor for too long time Chinese than those who are eager to rich. Once the stock investment compounding mode is rich people want to explore the amplification, the most brilliant achievements in the shortest time
Last month his son a birthday. The day to hold him to his cousin's house, his cousin in the piano, the son can obviously on the pronunciation of the huge monster is very curious, though a luantan.
Grandpa grandmother evening to retell the. Grandpa drink a little wine, immediately said to buy a piano as a birthday gift. With his father's wife Fadia, now buy too early, not converted into cash to give her to the stock market. The stock market bullish, the stock is blind wife small gains. "The piano is fold ten thousand yuan. To earn three thousand or four thousand a year is not a problem in the stock market?" The wife showed optimistic future, "the son grew up, he used the money to go to school."
I sat on the side of the mental ten thousand yuan in the future in the end can become much. Do not know, be shocked, if the annual profit 30%, rolling investment, 20 years after the ten thousand yuan becomes nearly 2 million! After 70 years? Nearly 1 trillion! This is roughly the present throughout the Shanghai GDP, the Chinese GDP 5% are richer than the richest man in the world of Gates! (Gates's net worth equivalent to about 640 billion yuan RMB)
In the bull market mentality, 30% does not seem very high, of course, who knows that it is difficult to lasting benefits. - so far, on this planet, in this record is the world's second rich Buffett, his record is: from 1965 to 2003 nearly 40 years, the average annual income of 22.2%.
If 30% is too difficult, 10% seems to be not so difficult. Even the 10% annual return, after 70 years, will also be added nearly 800 times. Think of the children were born, if they set up a fund of 100 thousand yuan, annual income of 10% to 70 years old, will be nearly 80 million! This seems to give each when not rich people an opportunity: when the rich dad or grandfather.
If 10% words difficult to return, then the 1% and how? If time is enough long, too surprising. Assuming that the Yellow Emperor alive, one yuan investment, annual income of 1%, rolling investment, to 5000 years later, the yuan has become astronomical 40 trillion billion yuan. The sum of all the wealth that created greater than all human hundreds of millions of times. That is known as the sons of Huang Di's population now has a total of 1 billion 400 million (the overseas are considered to come), the money is divided as heritage, more than 2 trillion and 800 billion yuan per capita! And all of this comes from a yuan.
All of these are based on the myth of wealth "interest", people often say that "the interest" (profit once as the principal, enter the next round of interest calculation). If you experience a sufficiently long period of time, compounding and non compounding the difference is amazing. Then the emperor's example, suppose instead of simple interest, the interest rate is still 1%, today this is Gary but only 51 yuan.
This compound 40 trillion billion are too big.
Even today, bank deposits or Chinese people the main mode of financial management. In addition to demand, Chinese banks use the interest due a lump non compounding way (abroad, at least in the United States, bank deposit interest is to calculate the interest method). Bond interest can be agreed. A year or half a year pay, also with the maturity of a lump. Corporate debt is paid year by year. The interest is not automatically rolled into the principal, and the benefit of the cycle is relatively long.
Stock investment is a natural compound. From the investor's point of view, in the T + 1 (the day to buy the first need in the next trading day can sell) mode, investment cycle can be calculated by day to short. (the warrant trading mode T + 0 theory, the investment cycle is short to seconds.) If you can gain 1% every day, is the 5000 consecutive trading day (about 20 years) can be as the example the assumption above Huang Di, added 40 trillion billion times. Of course, we know that it is only a theoretical calculation, impossible to achieve. Because even if the whole world all enterprises, all mineral resources, all the land, and even the whole earth are converted into money, nor with the numbers in the same magnitude, there is no big stock market can do such a large investment.
From the listed companies, the development of enterprises is of course rolling. The end of a cycle of economic activity, with interest in economic activity in the next cycle, namely compound growth.
Understand this, we discuss some China phenomenon of the stock market, such as "universal", all of them are short-term visitors (even funds are good short-term), high exchange rate, they will know that there is truth they do.
The so-called "ten thousand years too long, seize the day". Poor for too long time Chinese than those who are eager to rich. Once the stock investment of this rich pattern was discovered, everyone wants to get the most brilliant record in the shortest time. And the great interest make rational Chinese make profit maximization choice.
Of course, this is not to encourage short-term investment. On the contrary, I believe that the long-term investment is the investment path. I just want to say, those who continue to do short-term, rounded out the blaze "retail" have their reasons. Simply tell them "irrational", at least is a bit rude.
To see the development of China economy with compound concept, there will also be some interesting findings: in 1978, China GDP was 364 billion 500 million yuan, calculated at comparable prices, 2007 GDP will be 14 times more than 29 years ago, the average annual growth of about 10%, this is definitely the past 29 years, on the earth the biggest economic achievements.
If the next 29 years, China to average annual growth rate of 10%, is China GDP in 2036 will reach 330 trillion, which is roughly equivalent to this year's global GDP. This is certainly too optimistic.
A more realistic default point is: in the next 29 years, there will be some even a large number of the average annual profit growth of more than 10% enterprises Chinese. I don't know exactly who will be,
I believe that today's listed companies have such enterprises. The development of these enterprises will be the basis for China economic development at the same time, people will get their investment returns.
This is not to encourage readers to a high point in more than 4000 to reach the market. Especially in the current stock market system construction is not perfect, banker infestation, insider information, flying to investors under the condition of serious lack of judicial protection. We hope that all parties through unremitting efforts, in China economic growth at the same time, in a large number of listed companies to achieve leapfrog development, the development of our securities market itself can also be realized completely. This is not the stock index at 5000 points or 6000 points, but it is in the system to carry out a series of reforms, the reform of listed companies to help develop faster and better, but also help investors more enjoy more stable development of listed companies.